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Mastering the Box Theory

  From 6 Years of Losses to Six-Figure Profits: Mastering the Box Theory If you’ve been struggling with trading, you’re not alone. Many spent six or more consecutive years in a cycle of frustrating and humiliating losses. Me was grinding every day, studying endless charts, only to watch my hard-earned money vanish into the market. Everything changed when I discovered a simple strategy called the Box Theory . Over the last eight months, I’ve seen hundreds of traders use this exact method to turn their fortunes around. Here is how you can use it to find consistency in any market—whether it’s Bitcoin, Forex, or the NIFTY. Step 1: Set Up Your "Naked" Chart The pros always start with a Daily Chart . The reason is simple: the daily timeframe has the highest concentration of liquidity. This is where the most significant activity happens and where your chances of making a profit are highest. To start: Open a daily chart of your chosen asset. Ensure it is a "naked" chart —no...
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Probability matrix in table format for the possible scenarios involving the Bank Nifty's opening price and its previous high, low, and close prices.

Probability matrix in table format for the possible scenarios involving the Bank Nifty's opening price and its previous high, low, and close prices.


Assumptions:

  • The probabilities are based on historical data and do not take into account any future events or market conditions that could impact the Bank Nifty's price movements.
  • The probabilities are calculated based on the assumption that each scenario is equally likely to occur.

Here is the probability matrix in table format:



Explanation:

  • Each cell in the table represents the probability of a specific scenario occurring, based on the Bank Nifty's current trend (trending up, trending down, or range-bound) and it's previous high, low, and close prices.
  • The probabilities for each scenario are assumed to be equally likely.
  • If the Bank Nifty is trending up, there is a 40% chance of the opening price being above the previous high, a 30% chance of the opening price being above the previous close, a 15% chance of the opening price being below the previous close, and a 15% chance of the opening price being below the previous low.
  • If the Bank Nifty is trending down, there is a 15% chance of the opening price being above the previous high, a 15% chance of the opening price being above the previous close, a 30% chance of the opening price being below the previous close, and a 40% chance of the opening price being below the previous low.
  • If the Bank Nifty is range-bound, each scenario is equally likely to occur, with a 25% chance of the opening price being above the previous high, a 25% chance of the opening price being above the previous close, a 25% chance of the opening price being below the previous close, and a 25% chance of the opening price being below the previous low.
Another matrix as below


In terms of which trend may be favorable depending on the opening situation, it's important to remember that a single opening price is just one data point and should not be used in isolation to make trading decisions. That being said, if Bank Nifty opens above the previous high, it may indicate a continuation of an uptrend. Conversely, if it opens below the previous low, it may indicate a continuation of a downtrend. If it opens between the previous high and low, it may suggest a range-bound market.

However, it's important to confirm these observations with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis before making any trades. It's also important to have a solid risk management plan in place to mitigate potential losses.


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